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20121006
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're seeing the big bond houses come through. jpmorgan, citi, barclays, deutsche bank and we're seeing increased fees on the debt capital market side, up 14% over last year, which will bode well for those kind of traditional bond houses as they report earnings next quarter. >> matthew tool, thank you very much for joining us this morning. >> all-time low average on high yield debt activity. >> it's been on a tear. absolute tear. and you get the sense it that it's not over yet. >> still to come, we'll also have a look at how the u.s. economy is fairing the lead up to the presidential election and it's tee time in chicago. >> you like any kind of tee time. we'll leave you with a look at how futures are trading. >>> european stocks trade higher as investors a wait the results of a stress test that could put recap at about 60 billion euros. >> plus the latest budget in paris. will hollande bring the deficit down without damaging growth. >> and r.i.m. posts another quarterly loss, but it wasn't quite as bad as expected. we're nearing the end of the quarter, so let's put the quarter in conte
around this is head of developed markets rate strategy at citi. thanks for coming along. so what are you expecting from the ecb, when will they move next? >> i think today will be a monday event. the market is not pricing any in move. if there's going to be a change in policy, it will happen probably towards the end of the year and then most likely forecast also another change in the first quarter much next year. so it's all about expectations for the future. >> how do you trade around those expectations? >> the way to trade around it is to carry. the ecb has carry rich. you have on libor a quite steep structure. and so what we expect our baseline scenario to profit from long positions there. >> let's put this into the context of what's going on. we have the central banks and developed markets, the bank of englands as well today, most people agree that we won't get anything from the bank of england until november, december. any thoughts there? >> i think with regards to the fmoc minutes, what we'll get is most likely some sort of sense for unhappiness with regards to the measures that ha
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